Zillow’s chief economist Stan Humphries wrote this morning:
“Today’s Case-Shiller numbers may reflect where the housing market has been in some of the frothier metros, but they are not indicative of where it’s headed.
The housing market worm has turned over the past few weeks – inventory levels are beginning to show signs of easing, and mortgage interest rates are creeping up. Going forward, both of these factors will help mitigate extreme price spikes caused by very strong housing demand and very low housing supply,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “Runaway appreciation in many of the large, coastal metros that form the backbone of the Case-Shiller indices will begin to moderate. Home value appreciation in some of these areas will have to slow down, or potentially fall, as higher bottom-line prices are no longer masked by rock-bottom mortgage rates. In general, the national housing recovery is strong and sustainable, but pockets of volatility will emerge as local fundamentals shift. Buyers expecting home values to continue rising at this pace indefinitely may be in for a shock.”
After years of falling inventory and really tight markets, things are beginning to change. Redfin reports that listing grew 6.4 % between march and april and 4.2% between april and may. Last year it fell all year. They say that if things keep up like this we should be normal by the end of the year.
Read more on Housing Inventory on the rise…
The housing market uptick is bringing population gains to cities hit hard in the last downturn.
Las Vegas, Phoenix, and several Florida cities have seen large population migration.
L.A. is the exception.
Read the story
Read more on sun belt cities growing…
Case Shiller, one of the largest gatherer of data for the housing market has reported that home prices were up big time from last year. Not that this is news to us unless you never read a paper. Phoenix and Las Vegas were the big winners but L.A. also rose over 7% from last last year in November. Prices dropped a little last month but that is due to seasonal factors.
Read more on Case Shiller results…
The housing market has finally improved and it looks like the worst is behind us. However if the Washington dummies fail to resolve the fiscal cliff, housing is in trouble.
Fiscal cliff could cost the U.S. two million jobs next year and cause the unemployment rate to stay stubbornly stuck above 8% through 2014. Fewer jobs could translate into less demand for new homes, possibly even a new wave of foreclosure filings as newly unemployed workers struggle to make mortgage payments.
Read more on The fiscal cliff and housing…